Saturday, 28 January 2017

Stock Investing - First Steps


Most of our educated youth believe that investment in stocks is an easy way to wealth destruction, forget about them being any form of investment at all. They prefer to keep their money stashed in banks rather than investing in good quality stocks for the fear of losing money — that mindset needs to change. Investments also need time to grow and people need to understand that, especially the ones who have been recently inducted into the workforce, how much good this financial literally can do to their future financial well-being.

This misconception about stock markets being a place of wealth destruction needs to go once and for all.


                  
 
Advice for people who are into their first job or who have started investing recently:

Ideally, a new investor should start his/her stock market journey by investing in good quality IPOs like RBL MGL, Alkem, Dr. Lal Pathlab, Thyrocare, BSE and some other in the recent past, and upcoming NSE IPO. You can leave these untouched for another 25 years and exit only when big funds are needed, such as purchase of property or children’s education. You would see a significant appreciation in your investment over this period. Examples of such are Bajaj Finance, CanFin Homes, and many such stocks which have grown multifold over the past couple of years. Bajaj Finance and CanFin Homes have grown 40x and 23x in last 7 years itself.

* Bajaj Finance — Jan 2010 — Rs 30, High of 1200 in 2016, 40x.

* CanFin Homes — Jan 2010 — Rs 80, High of 1887 in 2016, 23x.

While many would disagree, mutual funds are NOT the right vehicle for investment at least for the educated middle class who can take care of their investments. No one has become rich by investing in mutual funds and no one will, but many have made substantial amount of money by investing in fundamentally good quality stocks. So undoubtedly, it is the best investment class among all asset classes.

Roughly, 40% of the American households have investments in equities while that percentage is less than 12% in India. This is also because of the mindset that we have got from our previous generation as legacy that investment in stocks is a good way to lose money, which is true to a certain extent if one is into mindless investing into poor quality stocks or day trading without having adequate knowledge, and if one does not rebalance his/her portfolio periodically.

People who indulge into such mindless investing often hear a stock name on the street or some news channel, read some articles, and that becomes the basis for their investment. Not much effort is put into reading the financial statements and doing the required background research on actual business of the company or the sector it caters to. Investment into fundamentally low quality stocks stocks without doing proper due diligence is bound to lead to destruction of wealth, and in all such cases the only one to be blamed is the investor himself.


All of us are still learning and would continue to do so. 

Following are some suggestions which can help you cultivate good stock picking skills over a period of time:

* Read some good books and articles on fundamental analysis so that you are able to differentiate good businesses from the not so good ones.

* Get yourself familiar with reading financial statements and interpreting financial ratios.

* Identify good sectors to invest in and among that the best players who have potential to grow.

* Read some good investment journals like Dalal Streel Investment Journal and investment dailies like Economic Times and Business Standard.

Follow these diligently and you would also soon inculcate the habit of picking up good quality stocks.

All the best!

By Akhil
An Investor, Trader and Learner.

Candlestick Basics by Jayram Swami

Color Matters: White = Green and Black = Red

1)      Where are you going?
Training started with a question to check who all have attended school. All the attendees replied in assertive tone. When we get up in the morning, and get ready for office, we are going to office to earn money. When we come back home after a day's work, we tend to relax, and there is no fixed agenda as such.

Direction 1: From Home to School / Office: He explained that when we go to school / office, we go to earn something. In other words, we go to school to attain knowledge / salary.

Direction 2: From School to Home: When we come back from school to home, we usually tend to relax and have no planned agenda to capture anything comparatively


                  
2)      Dress Code:

Direction 1: From Home to School: We have a uniform / formal clothes which we use while we go to school / office. Apart from the exceptional case like birthday / weekened, we have to adhere to dress code everyday

Direction 2: From School to Home: There is no compulsion to wear the same uniform while returning towards home. He meant that in case the uniform is changed before leaving the school, it is absolutely fine.

Please note the confirmations of green/red may come in the next candles, but an indication is provided-- that I may start to get into the reverse trend very soon. This is when u need to take action- get ready for booking your profit, if u are long- or getting ready to short..

3)      Colour of the Dress:

Direction 1: From Home to School: Green indicates that you are going to get something in return. Going to school gives you knowledge. Green is the colour of positive returns

Direction 2: From School to Home: Red indicates negativity. Returning from school indicates the relaxation and comparatively the education flow reduces indicate negative return.

4)      Stock Market: Stock Market is also same like going to school or returning from school. When the candle formation is green in colour, it indicates the positivity while when it is red, it indicates the downtrend. Though you can gain in both the situation, but you have to play safe and with proper trading plan

5)      Standing at Right Side and Looking at Left Side: Jairam explained, that whenever you want to trade, look at the chart in a way that you are standing at the right side of the chart. Look at the left side and monitor it.

6)   Waiting for the formation of the candles: You have to wait on the right side for the candle formations- either green or red..and keep on observing the candles formed on the left side-- this is an indication to tell u that what your game plan would be

7) Prominent Colour of the Uniform: When you are standing at the right of the chart and looking left, check out which colour you can see? Which is the most prominent colour viewable from the right? If green, go for long. If red, time is to short the stock. Prominent colour is the one that is the first one you see when you look at the chart and has covered the previous candles completely

8)      Change of uniform: It is important that there should be change in the uniform. With this he means, the trend should be changing. Either you are going home from school or you are going school from home. You cannot make much money in between those situation.



9)      Look at three candles: When you look at the candles, see in the combination of three candles. The prominent candle should cover the previous candle completely

10)      Strategy
a.       For Long Trades:
                                                               i.      Chart of 175 minutes.
                                                             ii.      Change of uniform i.e. change of candle colour and it should be prominent green in colour
                                                            iii.      RSI should be above 30. More positive go with 42 RSI
                                                            iv.      Stop loss of previous support line
                                                v.      Book Profits when the color of the candle changes on the downside or RSI is below 30



b.      For Intra Day (Long)
                                                               i.      Chart of 15 minutes
                                                             ii.      Change of uniform i.e. change of candle colour and it should be prominent green in colour
                                                            iii.      RSI should be above 51.50
                                                            iv.      Stop loss of previous support line
                                                   v.      Book profits when the colour of the candle changes toward downside



c.    Go Shorting:
                                                               i.      Chart of 15 minutes.
                                                             ii.      Change of uniform i.e. change of candle colour and it should be prominent red  in colour
                                                            iii.     Short it when RSI is below 42
                                                            iv.      Stop loss of previous resistance or when RSI reaches 51.50
                                                            v.       Book profits when the color of the chandle changes on the upside



11)   Support and Resistance: Playing in the range of support and resistance will give you good income. Showing patience when there is no change of prominent uniform is important so as you don’t lose money.

Patience is very important when trading in the stock market, as well as the information/knowledge about the supports and resistances. If traded patiently and looking at the levels, one can earn good profits from the trades.

More to come in the next blog post. Just wait... Be Patient.. Happy Learning and Trading..

Friday, 27 January 2017

Candlestick Pattern - Inverted Hammer

Inverted Hammer as defined by Wikipedia

The inverted hammer is a type of candlestick pattern found after a downtrend and is usually taken to be a trend-reversal signal. The inverted hammer looks like an upside down version of the hammer candlestick pattern, and when it appears in an uptrend is called a shooting star.”


Inverted Hammer in my words
When a candle is formed having no or little lower shadow, small real body and longer upper shadow – it is called Inverted Hammer. It is usually formed at the downtrend and can be considered as the reversal pattern. If the next candle opens above the current close, it is good to treat as trend reversal.


                  
Features:
  • Appears at the bottom of downtrend
  • Can be an indication of potential reversal pattern
  • It in itself is not an indication to buy. We should wait for next candle as a confirmation and then took a trade
  • It is an indication that bulls are coming in picture but still the selling is in full force.
  • Color of the body is not very important in this pattern. Though white body indicates more confirmation of positive opening the following day.

Identification of Inverted Hammer
  • Open, Low and Close almost same.
  • Upper shadow (high) should be atleast twice as compared to real body length.
  • Without a lower shadow or very small lower shadow
  • Real body is at the lower end of the trading period
Signal Enhancements
  • Today’s opening is lower than previous day’s closing
  • The longer the upper shadow, higher the possibility of reversal
  • Open of tomorrow is higher than today’s closing
  • Today’s Volumes are much higher as compared to previous days volumes

How to Trade with Inverted Hammer
  • Today’s open and low is same – Strong Bullish Sign
  • Today’s close and low is same – Bullish Sign
  • Tomorrow open is higher than today’s close – Go for it and buy







Sunday, 15 January 2017

My Performance Report

 
Till Apr 2017


                 

Till 20th Feb 2017





Till 6th Feb 2017




1st - 15th January 2017





December 2016



November 2016


My Trades - January 2017

Sunday, 8 January 2017

Options Trading Basics by Praveen

What is Options and it's Jargon - Part 1?


Sharath P describes this video as one of Your option to learn “OPTIONS
Learn to “CALL” (incase you still don’t know!) and “PUT” before EXPIRY!
Find out why 75 is an important number!

Its time to “STRIKE @ The right PRICE and  at right TIME"



What is Options and it's Jargon - Part 2?

This video touches upon How Option premiums are determined. 
           
Sharath P says you will get to know what happens on EXPIRY (The D-DAY) by looking at this video
Expiry – Someone (oops something) has to expire; so what is it?!
If an option is about to expire (D-I-E) it means its TIME is ALMOST OVER!
Find out more about option premium and the two factors that actuate the premium – the two factors could be double dhamaka or double whammy for you!
Get to know terminologies such as: intrinsic value, Spot price, strike price, close price, volume weighted average, in the money.

What are you waiting for its time to get THE CONTRACT up and running!




When to square off your position before or after expiry? Mind blowing difference.. really??



                  



What is ITM, ATM, OTM in options?






Factors affecting premium pricing and Black Scholes equation




Basic strategy profiles



Monday, 2 January 2017

My Trades - Equity - January 2017

New Year Brings the new idea. And this year I have planned to share my trades on this blog. Please note I am neither recommending nor endorsing any calls. These are purely trades which either I have entered or will enter at price I feel comfortable at.

Please do not take these trades at face value and do your research / contact your investment advisor to guide you with the entry and exit points based on your risk profile as equity investments are volatile and it is not a good idea to risk your capital.


Click here to view my Trades - Equity - February 2017
 
Click here to view my Trades - Equity - March 2017
 
Click here to view my Performance Report



Date: 2nd Jan, 2017

Time: 9:23 IST

Hopeful to do trades of Tatamotors and TVS Motors - (480 CE and 340 PE)

Time: 9:28 IST

Will buy Tata Motors once cash price holds above 477 and TVS Motors once price holds above 350

Time: 12:37 IST

Tata Motors turning in favour

Time: 13:10 IST

Tata Motors CMP 476.60

Time: 13:16 IST

Bought Tata Motors CE-480 at MRP - 15. Will keep SL of 12 and will sell it at 22

Time: 13:45 IST

Booked 50% at 17.5 Tata Motors CE-480 bought at MRP - 15 at 13:16 IST today

Time: 14:30 IST

HCC will buy once it is above 42.7 and sustain for sometime at that level

Time: 14:37 IST

Tata Motors - 487. Booked rest 50% at 19.5 Tata Motors CE-480 bought at MRP - 15 at 13:16 IST today

Time: 14:50 IST

Will do BTST with DLF at the price of 118.70 and sell it at 123. Will keep Stoploss at 117.

Time: 15:35 IST

Fantastics Volumes have been observed in HCC. I will buy HCC around 42.50 and sell it at 49. I don't want to see 39.80. If it reach at that level, will book loss.



  
Date: 3rd Jan, 2017

Time: 8:53 IST

Nifty Resistance - 8185 & 8233

Time: 9:35 IST

NCC will buy at around 82 and will keep for approx 15 trading days.

Time: 9:37 IST

Sun TV - Moving Fast. Will buy once it corrects to 504 and if it goes to 518 and holds that level will buy aggressively for the target of 560 and 670

Time: 10:10 IST

Sun TV bought 540 CE @ 11.50

Time: 10:17 IST

Sun TV 540 CE trading @ 13

Time: 10:20 IST

Sun TV 540 CE trading @ 13.5

Time: 11:22 IST

Sun TV looking to touch 525 / 529 today

Time: 11:37 IST

Jet Airways will buy 368 and will sell at 375.

Time: 11:47 IST

PC Jewellers looking good to buy above 398

Time: 12:14 IST

Sun TV is holding resistance. I will wait for 550 for the shares bought in case if it holds strongly at 519 levels

Time: 12:22 IST

Sun TV trading at 523

Time: 12:25 IST

Booked 540 CE - Sun TV at 14 bought at 11.50.

Time: 12:38 IST

If Sun TV closes near 525, I will buy options for BTST - 560
Or will buy 560 CE when cash price will hit 512

Time: 13:58 IST

TVS Motor is maintaining strength. Bought for the target of 380.50. If it goes to 369 will book loss

Time: 15:18 IST

Bought Sun TV 560 CE at 7.1. Expecting tomorrow opening at 529 and high of 534

Time: 15:30 IST

TVS Motor sold at 384 and booked profits

 

                  

Date: 4th Jan, 2017

Time: 8:00 IST

Step Formation is seen in Fortis Healthcare. Looks like Active Traders are accumulating. I will buy for the target of 199. Having said that will keep a stop loss of 182.75

Time: 9:16 IST

Sold Sun TV 560 CE at 8 which was bought yesterday

Time: 9:24 IST

Not liking to see Sun TV 560 CE is trading at 9.5

Time: 9:48 IST

Sunpharma if close above 640, will trade for the target of 649 / 653 / 660

Time: 10:01 IST

I will buy NCC at 82.20 and will buy more at 85.20. Will sell it at the levels of 87 / 90 / 97

Time: 12:40 IST

Sold 50% DLF which was bought yesterday at 123 and another 50% will sell at 125

Time: 12:43 IST

I will buy HDIL at the level of 62.50 and will sell at 67. SL will keep of 59

Time: 13:33 IST

NCC part holding sold at 87
Will buy 90 CE at 1.5 or 1.6 and will sell when cash price comes to 90

Time: 14:57 IST

Buying 500 PE @ 9.60 - Sun TV with a stop loss of 8.80

  
Date: 5th Jan, 2017

Time: 8:29 IST

Regarding Sun TV PE bought yesterday, I forsee strong buying today, however it will hold 529. If yes, I will hold PE. In case if opens gap up above 529 and holds that level, I will wait till my SL hit

Time: 8:42 IST

Today I have Hexaware, Sun TV, Mindtree, NCC and HDIL in my watchlist

Time: 9:35 IST

Exited NCC 90 CE at 1.90 which was bought yesterday at 1.5

Time: 11:45 IST

Cipla is getting ready for breakout. Will enter at 576.80

Time: 11:53 IST

Partly booked Cipla at 579. Rest will keep for the target of 617 if hourly volumes maintain above 584 cash price. If closed above 584 will buy 600 CE
  
Date: 6th Jan, 2017

Time: 10:18 IST

Markets are in profit booking mode - trading at resistance - Fresh rally expected in stocks only post noon. Stocks like Cipla, Mothersun Sumi, Reliance Capital and DHFL are in my radar today.

Cipla couldn't hold the upmove. Seems selling pressure right at reistance and more supply than expected by driving force. It looks like it might take time to gather momentum. Most of pharma are performing and hence keeping strict watch

Time: 10:24 IST

Mothersun Sumi is very actively priced on charts and promises the larger move above 338.50. Just waiting for volumes to trade. Watching closely for volume pick up and if does will trade for the target of 360, 367

Time: 10:32 IST

Asian Paints on charts is showing rounding bottom formation with a resistance of 937. I will buy once the cash price comes to 910

Time: 10:47 IST

NBCC resistance is seen at 255 and made evening star. Short term sell strategy can work in this scenario. Will buy above 261 with a stop loss of 273 and target of 237

Time: 11:17 IST

Cipla is moving from 577 to 581. Looks like some aggressive buyer in full form. I will enter above 586 if the levels are sustain.

Time: 11:46 IST

If Sun TV sustains above 533.75 for half an hour will buy and sell at 544

Time: 11:52 IST

Fortis bought on 4th at 191 levels. Currently it is trading at 197. Booked 50%

Time: 12:33 IST

Timely booked NCC - All legs broken.

Time: 12:33 IST

Sun TV should make a move in next 15 minutes

Time: 15:28 IST

Bought Cipla - 600 CE @ 7.10

Time: 16:13 IST

Today balling was very tight. Neither made runs, nor gave wicket. Still batting. I am waiting for a point when baller will loose temper and throw a loose ball so that I can hit sixer

 


Date: 8th Jan, 2017

Time: 21:27 IST

Cipla and Sun TV. Opening Batsman tomorrow. Should make centuries.
I will buy Sun TV above 535.50. Expecting

1) the open price 535.50 and will sustain
2) Stock will not sustain and should go to hit stoploss of 530 - 529
3) Will stay for sometime and will see the sharp rise to 544
4) Gradually it will move to 552
5) I will trade this with a stop loss of 524

Cipla will try to cross 586 and if sustained will buy for the target of 591, 604, 618

Time: 21:43 IST

I will buy NCC at 82.20 / 81 with a stop loss of 79.50 and book profits at 85.20 / 87.30 / 88.50 / 98
Bharat Financial, I am waiting for the levels of 604 / 595 to enter for a target of 615 / 624 / 635


 
Date: 9th Jan, 2017

Time: 9:24 IST

Sold rest of fortis holding at 199 which was bought on 4th Jan

Time: 12:12 IST

Sun TV trading at day's high - 544.10 and have exactly behaved as it was predicted yesterday. Booked 50%


 
Date: 10th Jan, 2017

Time: 9:19 IST

NCC bought at 82.20 is currently trading at 83.50

Time: 11:57 IST

Cipla is in consolidation mode with negative formation on charts. Not attractive. I will trade only above 586 and if the level is sustained with volumes for sometime.

Time: 14:42 IST

I bought Tata Steel at 427 - 430 and will keep till levels of 436.30 / 444 is reached. Will book loss if it goes to 423 levels

Time: 15:21 IST

I bought Escorts at 337.30 and will exit tomorrow at 344


 
Date: 11th Jan, 2017

Time: 9:15 IST

Escorts opening 341 and Tata Steel 435.30

Time: 9:17 IST

Sold Escorts at 345 and Tata Steel at 444

Time: 11:19 IST

Sold all positions of HCC and NCC

Time: 12:14 IST

Will buy Sail at 55.40 and more at 54.10. Will sell it at 58 / 61


 
Date: 12th Jan, 2017

Time: 10:31 IST

Monitoring Cipla very closely. 586 - resistance

Time: 13:09 IST

Cipla - Ready - Amost - Monday it will touch 610, if close today or tomorrow first half at 587

Time: 13:21 IST

Money raining in the form of SAIL which is at 57 now. Am holding it tight.

Time: 13:41 IST

SAIL 58

 
Date: 13th Jan, 2017

Time: 9:45 IST

Bought Cipla at 582 and will sell at 587

Time: 10:15 IST

Sold Cipla at 587

 
Date: 15th Jan, 2017

Time: 21:25 IST

I will buy Idea when it comes to the level of 55.30 with the stop loss of 52 and will sell 50% when it reaches 68 and another 50% at 74
 
Date: 16th Jan, 2017

Time: 8:31 IST

Step formation can be viewed for MCX. Bulls seems to be active. I will buy at 1164 / 1196 and will sell at 1350

Time: 9:41 IST

Cipla - Expected to hit large as ascending Triangle is formed. It looks beautiful and all seems to be ready on technical front. I am waiting for volumes to pick up. Once it sustain level of 586-587 will buy for the target of 610

Time: 9:46 IST

I will book another 50% of Sail at 61

Time: 10:00 IST

All excited to enter Cipla 600 CE once cash price reach 587



Date: 17th Jan, 2017

Time: 10:00 IST

Cipla 50,000 shares - Selling - One Shot seen

Time: 10:20 IST

Intraday Cipla is looking weak below 586. If sustaining below 584, next support looks 578 on long term trend line

Time: 10:22 IST

I will buy Reliance Capital at the price of 457 with a stop loss of 454 and will sell it at 464 / 467 / 471

Time: 10:29 IST

Reliance Industries support level at 1046 / 1042

Time: 21:10 IST

I will short Sun TV tomorrow for the target of 512

Time: 22:27 IST

I will sell at 528. More at 532 with a stop loss of 536. I will be looking at the levels of 518 - 512 to come where I will book my profits.

Date: 18th Jan, 2017

Time: 21:00 IST

Cipla not attractive. Exiting from my positions.

Somi Conveyor Belts - forming flag pattern. Resistance is seen at 57 / 63 with a support of 45 / 48 and will sell it when the levels of 72 / 78 reached.

Date: 20th Jan, 2017

Time: 12:19 IST

Axis Bank - Expected to post weak numbers. I expect some short covering. I am watching Feb 520 CE very closely

Time: 13:05 IST

SBIN - I will buy at 261. More at 257 and will sell it at 285. In case it will come to 253, I will book the loss

Time: 15:05 IST

I will buy Aban Offshore at 254 / 251 with a stop loss of 244 and will book profits at 278

Time: 16:05 IST

Axis Bank opening expected at 463

Time: 20:27 IST

Somi Conveyor - Stock is perfectly hot to cross 58 which is strong resistance. Once scrip manages to trade above this level we might see sudden spike and could even lead to upper circuit. I am looking at 66 / 72 levels soon.

Hindoil Exploration can reach to the levels of 120 in next 6 months

CEAT Ltd. :

Formation: Symmetrical
Structure: Range Bound

Five week continues bull run from 800 to 1400 levels. Shows short term monthly manipulation.

Present Structure speaks of distribution and marks - 1169 - as support. Should reverse from here or hold for consolidate around. If broken with volumns then can test 1098 / 85 on downside

Greaves Cotton

Formation - Flag Pattern
Structure: Range Bound
Short Term - Daily Evening Star

Stock is Consolidating between - 120 / 155 from several weeks. Recently seen some volumes that marks some activity. Some rise in performance above - 153 can take a stock to 187. If I will plan to enter, I will plan at 120

Tata Steel:

Tata Steel in Resistance Zone. Upside capped to 475.50. Short Term Resistance could be 468. If holds this month above this rate, we can see 492 for first week next month.

JB Chemicals

Formation - 90*
Structure: Positive

Stock is perfectly running parellel 90* Formation and bounce from Support of 320.

I will think of buying around 335 with a stoploss of 320 and look for the 430 where I will book profits. Might see short term bounces and may book profits at lower levels.

Yes Bank

Yes Bank can see levels of 1365 / 1370 tomorrow

Sintex

I am avoiding Sintex and can observe maximum of 94 levels.




Date: 20th Jan, 2017

Time: 10:30 IST

Mothersun Sumi - I will buy at 335/336 (50%) and more at the levels of 331/328 with a stoploss of 318 and will close my position at 385


Date: 27th Jan, 2017

Time: 10:34 IST

SBI - Looking strong. Once it crosses 267, I could see 271 / 278 / 288 / 302 reaching soon


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